After one of the hottest summers on record, the Old Farmer’s Almanac is forecasting another wave of warmer-than-usual weather heading into the fall months. According to its newly released seasonal outlook, most parts of the United States can expect a lingering heat pattern, with above-average temperatures projected well into October.
The long-running publication, known for its blend of historical climate data, solar patterns, and traditional forecasting, is signaling that relief from the intense summer heat may come later than usual this year. Regions including the Midwest, South, and large parts of the East Coast are expected to see delayed cool-downs, with September and even October likely to feel more like summer.
The prediction aligns with what many meteorologists have already observed. This summer has brought waves of extreme temperatures, shattering records from Arizona to Florida. The National Weather Service confirmed that June and July 2025 have been among the top five hottest periods in U.S. history, with cities like Phoenix and Las Vegas enduring weeks of triple-digit highs.
According to the Almanac’s editors, the ongoing warmth is being fueled by several factors, including a persistent El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean and higher-than-normal ocean surface temperatures. These conditions tend to trap heat in the atmosphere, creating long spells of dry and hot weather. While El Niño typically brings wetter winters to parts of the country, its effect on fall temperatures often means prolonged warmth and reduced precipitation in many regions.
The fall 2025 forecast from the Old Farmer’s Almanac calls for:
- A warmer-than-normal start to autumn across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S.
- Delayed arrival of consistent cool air in states like Illinois, Ohio, Georgia, and the Carolinas.
- A milder, drier pattern in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through mid-October.
- Warmer nights and less early frost in parts of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast.
For those in agriculture, landscaping, and energy sectors, these predictions could have real consequences. A delayed fall cool-down may impact harvest schedules, energy usage patterns, and even public health planning, particularly in southern states where prolonged heat increases the risk of heat-related illnesses.
The Almanac also points out that many areas will likely experience a “second summer”—a stretch of warm days in late September that mimic early August. These so-called Indian summer conditions, while common, may be more intense this year due to the sustained warmth.
Notably, the Old Farmer’s Almanac’s forecasts are based on a proprietary formula developed in 1792 and passed down over generations. While it blends folklore with scientific observations, it has garnered a dedicated following among farmers, gardeners, and weather-watchers alike. Though it is not always aligned with official meteorological models, it is often remarkably accurate when it comes to broad seasonal patterns.
While the Almanac predicts a slower transition into fall, it does hint at a potential shift by late October, with temperatures beginning to normalize in northern states. However, even that cool-down may not bring significantly below-normal temperatures. Instead, forecasters expect a gentle decline, with fewer sharp cold fronts and a less abrupt change in season.
In the western U.S., the fall is expected to be slightly more varied. California and the Pacific Northwest may experience cooler and wetter conditions earlier than other regions, though the extent of rainfall remains uncertain. These regions, which have battled wildfires in recent years, are hoping for early rains to reduce fire risks—but the Almanac’s forecast is mixed on that front.
The long-range predictions have also raised questions about how this extended warmth might affect flu season, fall allergies, and even tourism. Public health experts suggest that warmer fall weather could push back the start of the typical flu season, potentially overlapping it with other respiratory viruses during the winter months.
Meanwhile, tourism boards in warmer states are already preparing for longer active travel seasons. Beach destinations in the Southeast and Southwest may benefit from more visitors in September and October, while ski resorts and mountain towns might see a delay in early winter bookings.
For consumers, the extended warmth could have mixed effects. On the one hand, heating bills may remain low for a while, offering temporary relief to households already dealing with high electricity costs from summer air conditioning. On the other, the warm weather could mean extended pollen seasons, a concern for allergy sufferers.
The Almanac’s editors caution that seasonal transitions are never perfectly predictable. Still, they maintain that the indicators point to a warm, dry fall that could challenge traditional expectations.
This forecast comes on the heels of new data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which confirmed July 2025 as one of the hottest months globally in recorded history. The combined land and sea surface temperatures were nearly 1.4°C above average, further reinforcing concerns about long-term climate patterns.
As farmers wait to decide when to harvest, schools plan fall activities, and households prepare for the change in seasons, the Almanac’s forecast has once again stirred up national attention. Whether you’re growing crops or just planning weekend outings, it may be wise to keep your summer clothes out a little longer this year.
With the fall equinox approaching in late September, the next few weeks will show how closely reality tracks with these predictions. But one thing seems clear—autumn 2025 may be slower to cool and longer to shift than most Americans are used to.
