India and Bangladesh have long-standing connections, with New Delhi offering critical assistance to Dhaka during the 1971 Liberation War.

Bangladesh’s military took control of the country on Tuesday, following major protests that resulted in the resignation and escape of longstanding ruler Sheikh Hasina.

Hasina, 76, has been in power since 2009 but was accused of election tampering in January. Over the last month, millions of demonstrators demanded her resignation, causing widespread turmoil.

In response to rising protests, security forces battled with protestors, killing hundreds. The crisis worsened, forcing Hasina to escape the nation by chopper on Monday as the military turned against her.

Hasina’s relations with the US and China

Prime Minister Hasina’s difficult relations with the US traced back to her first term in office. The killing of her father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, and the accompanying accusations of international participation have substantially affected her foreign policy perspective.

The US has been critical of the democratic processes under her leadership, particularly her refusal to hold elections under a caretaker government—a demand from the opposition rejected by parliament in 2011. Although the US remains a major investor, the political relations between the two nations have cooled. US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said that concerning financial support in fiscal year 2023, “the United States provided over 212 million dollars in bilateral economic development and health assistance to Bangladesh.”

The World Bank announced on Monday that it is assessing the impact of recent events in Bangladesh on its lending program, after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and departure.

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In June, the World Bank’s board authorized two $900 million projects to help Bangladesh improve fiscal and financial sector policies, as well as urban infrastructure, to achieve sustainable and climate-resilient growth.

Prime Minister Hasina highlighted her support for India over China in July, saying, “China is ready, but I want India to do the project,” when questioned about the Teesta project. This decision mirrors her larger efforts to minimize Bangladesh’s reliance on China.

After suddenly interrupting her visit to Beijing and returning to Dhaka, Hasina confirmed her decision, signaling a clear preference for India to oversee the $1 billion Teesta River development project in Bangladesh.

How will Hasina’s resignation affect India?

India and Bangladesh have long-standing connections, with New Delhi offering critical assistance to Dhaka during the 1971 Liberation War. The two nations have a 4,096.7-kilometer border, which is India’s longest land frontier with any of its neighbors.

According to PTI, Pankaj Saran, a seasoned diplomat and former Indian envoy to Bangladesh, believes that the present situation would have a greater impact on Bangladesh’s economy, which is closely linked to India’s.

The ongoing political instability in Bangladesh has important consequences for India. As a neighbor, India has a strong interest in Bangladesh’s stability and security.

Saran stated that the “next couple of days will be critical” and that it remains to be seen how her resignation affects the situation on the ground.

“There is currently a power vacuum that is being filled by the army. But now we have to see if this scenario and development will result in a halt to public protests, the return of students, and a reduction in street violence. That is something we need to see.”

The emergence of extreme forces, the flood of migrants, and possible cross-border conflicts are all issues that India must carefully manage. This proximity necessitates active engagement on a variety of security concerns, including police cooperation, anti-corruption initiatives, and combating illegal drug trafficking, counterfeit money, and human trafficking. Regular defense exchanges between the two nations strengthen collaboration and highlight the strategic importance of their security alliance.

Furthermore, other regional actors, including as China and Russia, who have so far been mute, will keep a careful eye on India’s handling of the problem.