Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil supplier, is anticipated to lower prices for the majority of the crude grades it exports to Asia in October, after the Middle East benchmark Dubai fell last month, industry sources said on Monday.

The October official selling price (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude is projected to fall between 50 and 70 cents per barrel, according to three of five refinery sources polled by Reuters, following a similar pattern in Dubai pricing spreads last month.

According to the sources, such a price decrease would reflect dismal refining profits, particularly in China, where slow manufacturing and property sectors are constraining gasoline demand.

“Margins are bad now overall and even worse in China,” one of the individuals said, adding that September, which is often the best month for oil demand, may disappoint this year.

OPEC+ supply is also expected to climb beginning in October, with eight of the group’s members due to increase output by 180,000 barrels per day next month as part of a plan to begin unwinding their most recent layer of output restrictions of 2.2 million bpd while keeping other cuts in place until the end of 2025.

Another two respondents forecast Arab Light’s OSP to remain stable in October. According to one of them, this was due in part to the Dubai benchmark’s strength in the final week of trading last month.

Three of the five respondents predict October prices for heavier grades – Arab Medium and Arab Heavy – to fall by less than 50 cents, owing to strong fuel oil demand, while the remaining two estimate price drops ranging from 60 to 80 cents per barrel.

Saudi oil OSPs are typically announced around the fifth of each month and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti, and Iraqi pricing, influencing around 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude destined for Asia. Saudi Aramco, the state oil behemoth, determines its crude prices based on client suggestions and the change in the value of its oil over the previous month, taking into account yields and product prices.

Saudi Aramco officials, by policy, do not comment on the kingdom’s monthly OSPs.